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Sixteen‑year‑old Lashaya Stine was born on February 8, 2000, to her mother, Sabrina Jones, who remembers her daughter as responsible, mature beyond her years, and deeply rooted in her family. She was the kind of teenager who cooked dinner for her younger siblings, who kept her grades high without being asked, who talked about her future with a quiet, steady confidence.
She was an honor student at George Washington High School, preparing for her senior year. She had dreams of working in the medical field — dreams she was already turning into reality. She’d earned an internship at the University of Colorado Hospital and had a job interview scheduled for July 16, 2016. Her clothes for the interview were already laid out.
But she never made it to that interview.
The Last Night at Home
In the early hours of July 15, 2016, the house was still. The kind of stillness that only exists at 2 A.M., when the world is dark and the air feels suspended. At some point during that hour, Lashaya quietly slipped out the front door.
She didn’t take her phone.
She didn’t take her charger.
She didn’t take her wallet, which still held money.
She didn’t take any clothes.
Everything she would have needed for a planned departure remained neatly in her room. It looked as though she intended to return — as though she expected the night to be brief.
Her mother believes she left to meet someone she trusted.
The Last Known Footage
Surveillance cameras later captured her walking near East Montview Boulevard and North Peoria Street — a corridor of flickering streetlights, aging motels, and late‑night foot traffic. The footage shows her moving with purpose, not wandering. She glances over her shoulder once, as if expecting someone.
She was wearing a white tank top and gray sweatpants, her long black hair pulled into the bun she wore almost every day. Her walk is steady. Her posture is calm.
These are the last confirmed images of her.
A Mother’s Desperation
When morning came and her daughter’s bed was still empty, Sabrina’s fear ignited instantly. She reported her missing within hours. She and family members canvassed the neighborhood, knocking on doors, handing out flyers, begging businesses to review their surveillance footage.
“It has been pure devastation,” Sabrina said. “The fact that I haven’t seen her face, or heard her voice for months is the most horrible thing.”
She keeps her daughter’s room the same.
She still wakes at night thinking she hears footsteps in the hallway.
Sightings on East Colfax
In the weeks and months that followed, multiple witnesses reported seeing a girl who looked like Lashaya along East Colfax — a desolate stretch lined with cheap motels, neon vacancy signs, and the constant churn of drugs and exploitation. Some said she appeared disoriented, as if drugged. Others said she was being watched or controlled.
These sightings were consistent with patterns seen in trafficking cases:
movement between motels,
being accompanied by older adults,
appearing dazed or monitored.
When Sabrina shared these reports with police, she was told her daughter may have been moved to Kansas City, Kansas. But no new tips have surfaced from that area.
Leads That Fade Into Silence
One of the most haunting aspects of the case is the silence from people who may know more.
Sabrina once received a message on Facebook from a young woman whose sister’s boyfriend allegedly had information about what happened to Lashaya. But he refused to speak with detectives.
“People in the Denver area who know about my daughter are afraid to come forward,” Sabrina said.
Rumors.
Half‑truths.
Whispers that never become statements.
The fog around the case thickens with every year that passes.
The Search That Never Stops
Despite the time, the family has never stopped searching. They’ve held vigils, organized community walks, worked with nonprofits, and kept her story alive. They believe someone, somewhere, knows something — and that even the smallest detail could bring her home.
You can read my original article on Lashaya’s disappearance here:
Some crimes do not erupt into the world — they seep into it. They arrive quietly, like a change in the weather, and by the time anyone notices, the damage is already done. A child vanishes from a holiday apartment, and the world is left staring into a void that seems to swallow logic whole.
But voids have shapes.
And shadows have patterns.
In cases like Madeleine McCann’s disappearance, criminal profilers don’t look for a face — they look for a type. A psychological silhouette. A man who moves through the world differently, quietly, invisibly.
This is the profile of that man.
The Watcher Who Blends In
Before he ever crossed the threshold, he watched.
Not dramatically — not the cinematic villain lurking behind hedges — but with the subtle, predatory patience of someone who has spent years studying the soft spots in other people’s lives. He notices the things most people never think to guard:
the door that doesn’t fully click
the window that never quite locks
the parents who trust routine
the children who sleep deeply
He memorizes patterns the way others memorize prayers.
He is the kind of man who can stand in a crowd and leave no imprint at all, except perhaps a faint, inexplicable unease.
A Life Spent Crossing Boundaries
Forensic psychology has a name for men like this: organized opportunistic predators.
They don’t begin with abduction. They begin with smaller trespasses:
slipping into places they shouldn’t be
watching people who don’t know they’re being watched
testing doors, windows, limits
learning how to move without being seen
These are not accidents.
They are rehearsals.
Inside his mind is a locked room where:
deviant fantasies grow unchecked
power feels attainable only in the dark
control becomes a substitute for identity
empathy has long since withered
He is not impulsive.
He is not frenzied.
He is cold.
His crime is not an explosion — it is an eclipse.
The Night the World Shifted
He chooses the night with care. He has watched long enough to understand the rhythm of the parents’ movements, the timing of their check-ins, the way the resort exhales after dusk.
When he moves, he moves with the confidence of someone who has crossed many thresholds before this one.
He enters the apartment quietly, almost reverently.
He lifts the child with the ease of someone who has rehearsed the moment in his mind.
He leaves without disturbing the air.
To the world, it looks impossible — a vanishing.
To him, it is simply the execution of a plan he has carried like a secret pulse beneath his skin.
The Man Who Walks Away
After the crime, he becomes two men.
The outer man
calm
polite
unremarkable
the kind of man who blends into the scenery of a resort or a town
The inner man
vibrating with the aftershock of the act
compulsively watching the news
replaying the night in obsessive loops
waiting for a knock on the door that never comes
He may leave the area abruptly — not out of panic, but because the place has become too charged with the memory of what he did. He may clean obsessively. He may drink more. He may sleep less. He may feel, for the first time in his life, that he has crossed a line he cannot uncross.
And he is right.
The Composite Shadow
When all the threads are woven together, the offender in a case like this resembles a silhouette more than a man:
male, 25–55
familiar with the resort’s geography
practiced in moving unnoticed
patient, observant, quietly predatory
capable of planning without appearing to plan
a man who has lived his life in the half-light, where doors are suggestions and silence is a language
He is the kind of figure who could pass you on a staircase and leave no impression at all — except a chill that lingers long after he’s gone.
Author’s Note
Cases like this haunt us because they expose a truth we rarely want to face: evil does not always announce itself. Sometimes it wears the most ordinary face in the room. Sometimes it walks beside us unnoticed. And sometimes, it slips through a door we didn’t realize we’d left open.
Understanding the psychology behind these offenders doesn’t solve the mystery — but it illuminates the shape of the darkness we’re staring into.
One of the hardest things to accept in a case like Nancy Guthrie’s is that sometimes the loudest clue isn’t a message, a sighting, or a breakthrough — it’s the silence.
People imagine kidnappers as constant communicators, sending updates, demands, threats. But in real investigations, that’s not how it works. When a ransom note is followed by nothing… that absence becomes its own kind of data. It tells you something about control, about access, about what the perpetrators can or can’t do anymore.
In genuine hostage situations, communication doesn’t just stop. There are follow‑ups. There are instructions. There are proofs of life. There’s movement. But here, we have a void — and voids aren’t neutral. They point somewhere.
Silence can mean the plan fell apart.
Silence can mean the offender lost access to the victim.
Silence can mean the notes were never meant to lead to an exchange.
And sometimes, silence means the truth is darker than anyone wants to say out loud.
This isn’t speculation. It’s pattern recognition. It’s what investigators look for when everything else has gone still.
Nancy deserved a voice in her own story. And when that voice was taken from her, the responsibility shifted to the rest of us — to read the gaps, to question the quiet, and to refuse to let silence be the final word.
When a case captures global attention, it is often because the violence feels sudden and incomprehensible. Yet in many instances, the warning signs exist long before the final act — subtle, quiet, and easy to dismiss. The case of Bryan Laundrie is one such example.
This article examines Laundrie’s behavior through a psychological and behavioral lens, focusing on control, emotional regulation, and post-offense conduct. This is not a clinical diagnosis. Rather, it is an evidence-based behavioral analysis grounded in documented actions, interactions, and outcomes.
A Quiet Personality With Rigid Internal Control
Bryan Laundrie publicly presented as soft-spoken, reserved, and compliant. Those who encountered him often described him as calm and polite. Psychologically, this does not indicate emotional openness, but rather internal rigidity — a personality structure defined by self-control, moral certainty, and a strong need to maintain composure.
Individuals with this pattern often:
Avoid outward displays of anger
Suppress emotional volatility rather than express it
Maintain a controlled exterior while internal pressure builds
This is not emotional health. It is emotional containment — and containment has limits.
Control Without Obvious Violence
Control does not always appear as physical intimidation or overt threats. In many abusive dynamics, control is expressed psychologically.
In Laundrie’s relationship with Gabby Petito, available evidence suggests:
Emotional dominance rather than constant physical aggression
Subtle undermining of confidence and autonomy
Role reversal, where the distressed partner appears “unstable” while the controlling partner appears calm and reasonable
The Moab police body-camera footage is particularly revealing. Gabby is visibly anxious, apologetic, and self-blaming. Laundrie remains composed, articulate, and deferential to authority. He allows her to assume responsibility for the conflict without meaningful correction.
This interaction reflects psychological power, not mutual dysfunction.
📊 Timeline of Psychological Turning Points
Graphic: Timeline of Psychological Turning Points — The Gabby Petito & Bryan Laundrie Case
Image credit: MyCrimany | Behavioral Analysis
Behavioral Red Flags Observed
• Emotional manipulation masked as calmness
• Gaslighting and subtle blame-shifting
• Need for control and dominance in interpersonal dynamics
• Withdrawal and silence when confronted or under stress
These behaviors are commonly observed in psychologically controlling relationships and are often mistaken for introversion, immaturity, or conflict avoidance.
Emotional Suppression and the Risk of Sudden Collapse
Laundrie did not exhibit patterns of impulsive rage or frequent emotional outbursts. Instead, his behavior suggests chronic emotional suppression — particularly of anger and resentment.
Psychologically, this is a high-risk configuration. When individuals define themselves by control and moral order, emotional rupture does not occur gradually. It happens abruptly.
In such cases, violence is often:
Triggered by perceived loss of control
Followed by emotional shutdown rather than visible panic
Accompanied by immediate psychological withdrawal
This pattern is consistent with what is known about intimate partner homicide rooted in control dynamics.
❝ Pull-Quote ❞
“The most dangerous moment in a controlling relationship is when the abuser realizes they are losing power.”
After the Crime: Silence as a Strategy
Laundrie’s post-offense behavior is marked not by frantic escape attempts, but by avoidance and detachment.
Notable behaviors include:
Returning home alone without explanation
Refusing cooperation with investigators
Avoiding public emotion or narrative control
Psychologically, this suggests cognitive compartmentalization — the separation of actions from identity. Silence, in this framework, is not a declaration of innocence. It is perceived self-protection.
Retreat, Shame, and Identity Collapse
Rather than attempting long-term flight or reinvention, Laundrie withdrew into familiar terrain. This behavior aligns with avoidant collapse, a psychological state driven by shame, fear of exposure, and an inability to reconcile one’s actions with self-image.
For individuals whose identity depends on being “good,” “right,” or morally superior, public exposure can feel worse than death. In such cases, suicide represents not only an escape from consequences, but an escape from identity annihilation.
What This Profile Does Not Suggest
It is important to clarify what this analysis does not imply.
Bryan Laundrie was not:
A criminal mastermind
Psychotic or delusional
Constantly violent or outwardly explosive
Instead, he fits a documented behavioral pattern:
A psychologically controlling partner whose sense of self collapsed when control was lost.
Why This Case Matters
The danger in cases like this lies in what is often overlooked.
Abuse does not always look chaotic.
Calm does not equal safety.
Control can be quiet — and lethal.
The most dangerous phase of a controlling relationship is often not during ongoing conflict, but when the abuser realizes they are losing power.
Understanding these dynamics is not about hindsight. It is about recognition — and prevention.
Content Note
This article discusses intimate partner violence and suicide. Reader discretion is advised.
This article is an expanded and updated analysis of the death of Reeva Steenkamp. An earlier post explored initial questions surrounding the case; this version examines the timeline and contradictions in greater detail.
⚠️ Content Warning
This article discusses the real-world killing of Reeva Steenkamp and contains references to intimate partner violence, gun violence, and fatal injury. Some details may be distressing, particularly for readers affected by relationship trauma or abuse.
Reader discretion is advised.
If you or someone you know is experiencing abuse or feels unsafe in a relationship, help is available. In the United States, the National Domestic Violence Hotline can be reached at 1-800-799-SAFE (7233) or via thehotline.org. If you are outside the U.S., please seek local support resources in your country.
Who Reeva Steenkamp Was
Reeva Steenkamp was born on August 19, 1983, to Barry Steenkamp and June Marshall (formerly Cowburn). She was a South African model, law graduate, and paralegal who aspired to become a lawyer.
Reeva studied law at the University of Port Elizabeth, graduating in 2005. She later worked as a paralegal and planned to apply to the bar. Alongside her professional ambitions, she used her public platform to speak out against violence toward women.
As a child, Reeva suffered a severe horseback riding accident that broke her back. After extensive rehabilitation, she relearned how to walk — an experience that shaped her resilience and determination.
The Relationship
Reeva met Oscar Pistorius in November 2012 during a lunch at a car racing track. Their relationship moved quickly, but it was not without tension.
Three weeks before her death, Reeva sent Pistorius a text message stating that she was sometimes afraid of him and that he could “snap” at her.
That message would later take on devastating weight.
The Night of February 13–14, 2013
On the evening of February 13, 2013, Reeva — 29 years old — spoke with her mother on the phone while driving to Pistorius’s home.
She would not survive the night.
In the early hours of Valentine’s Day, Pistorius claimed he awoke to a noise coming from the bathroom. He later said he panicked, believing there was an intruder in the house. According to his account, the room was pitch-dark, yet he was able to locate his firearm from beneath the bed.
He did not wake Reeva.
He did not speak to her.
He did not turn on a light.
Instead, he moved toward the perceived danger.
Pistorius stated that he shouted for Reeva to call the police and then fired four shots through the locked bathroom door.
This account raises unavoidable questions.
If he believed an intruder was present, what caused him to stop after four shots?
Why only four?
What made him believe the threat had ended?
What Was Found Behind the Door
The person in the bathroom was Reeva.
She had taken her cellphone with her.
She was shot:
through the right hip
through the elbow
grazed on the little finger of her left hand
and fatally in the right temple
The first bullet struck her hip — an injury that would almost certainly have caused immediate pain and a scream.
Why didn’t the shooting stop when a woman screamed?
Neighbors later reported hearing a woman scream, followed by gunshots, then more screaming, and then additional gunshots.
Pistorius stated that after firing, he returned to the bedroom and only then realized Reeva was not in bed. He said he put on his prosthetic legs, ran back to the bathroom, and attempted to break down the door.
The bathroom door was locked.
Why was the bathroom door locked?
Aftermath and Sentencing
Emergency services were called, but Reeva had already died.
In September 2014, Pistorius was convicted of culpable homicide (manslaughter) and sentenced to five years in prison, serving approximately one year.
On December 3, 2015, South Africa’s Supreme Court of Appeal overturned that conviction and instead found Pistorius guilty of murder.
In July 2016, he was sentenced to six years in prison — despite South Africa’s statutory minimum sentence of 15 years for murder. Following a state appeal, his sentence was increased to 13 years and five months.
Why This Case Still Matters
Reeva Steenkamp spoke publicly about violence against women.
She died behind a locked bathroom door.
The unanswered questions surrounding her final moments remain deeply unsettling:
Why she was in the bathroom
Who she may have been trying to contact
And why warning signs she herself described were not taken seriously until it was too late
This case is not only about what happened in a bathroom — it is about how fear, control, and violence can escalate behind closed doors.
Related Reading:
For the original post that raised the initial questions surrounding this case, you can read it here:
When an adult woman disappears without an obvious struggle, ransom demand, or immediate digital footprint, investigators often face one of the most difficult categories of missing-person cases. These cases rarely announce themselves as crimes — instead, they unfold quietly, leaving behind unanswered questions, disrupted routines, and unsettling gaps.
Behavioral profiling does not identify a suspect. Rather, it narrows the field by examining patterns, motivations, and human behavior commonly seen in similar cases. The following profile outlines the types of offenders and behaviors profilers typically consider in a disappearance with circumstances like Nancy Gutherie’s.
1. Offender Type
In adult female disappearances where there is no clear evidence of violence at the scene, profilers usually begin with two broad offender categories.
A. Targeted Abductor (Known to the Victim)
Statistically, this is the more common scenario in adult female disappearances.
This offender does not strike randomly. Instead, the victim is chosen — sometimes gradually, sometimes obsessively — long before the disappearance occurs.
Likely traits:
Male, typically between 25 and 55
Has a prior connection to the victim: acquaintance, coworker, neighbor, former partner, or casual social contact
Holds a fixation, grievance, or resentment toward the victim
May have a history of boundary violations, stalking, or unreciprocated romantic interest
Appears socially functional and capable of blending in
Has knowledge of the victim’s routines, schedule, or vulnerabilities
These offenders often do not see themselves as criminals. In their own mind, they may feel justified, rejected, wronged, or entitled.
Behavioral indicators after the disappearance:
A noticeable change in demeanor (withdrawn, agitated, overly calm, or unusually anxious)
Over-involvement in search efforts or complete avoidance
Attempts to control the narrative by offering theories, timelines, or explanations
Possible history of domestic violence, harassment, coercive control, or intimidation
In many cases, the offender is someone investigators initially speak to early — sometimes multiple times.
B. Opportunistic Predator (Stranger Abductor)
This scenario is less common but still possible, depending on location, timing, and opportunity.
Here, the victim may not have been specifically targeted — rather, she was available.
Likely traits:
Male, typically 30–60
Prior criminal history such as burglary, voyeurism, stalking, or sexual offenses
Familiar with the area where the victim was last seen
Comfortable operating during windows of low visibility or low witness presence
May have been actively “hunting” for an opportunity
This type of offender often escalates over time, moving from fantasy or minor offenses toward direct contact.
Behavioral indicators:
Lives or works within a short radius of the abduction site
Shows a pattern of escalating or compulsive behavior
Abruptly changes routines, relocates, or leaves town after the disappearance
2. Motivation Patterns
Motivation varies depending on offender type, but certain themes appear repeatedly.
Targeted Offender Motivations
Obsession or romantic fixation
Anger over perceived rejection or loss of control
Desire for dominance or possession
Personal grievance tied to the victim
These crimes are often emotionally driven and deeply personal.
Stranger Offender Motivations
Sexual compulsion
Power–control fantasies
Opportunity combined with low inhibition
Escalation from prior deviant behavior
This type of offense is often about control rather than the victim herself.
3. Pre-Abduction Behaviors
Profilers look closely at what happened before the disappearance, because offenders frequently telegraph their intentions.
Common red flags include:
Surveillance of the victim’s home, workplace, or daily routes
Attempts to isolate the victim socially or physically
Unwanted messages, gifts, or persistent attention
Sudden appearances in locations the victim frequents
Prior attempts to lure, pressure, or coerce
Often, these behaviors are dismissed at the time as “odd” or “uncomfortable” — only gaining significance afterward.
4. Post-Abduction Behaviors
After the crime, offenders frequently exhibit behavioral leakage — subtle actions that reflect internal stress or fear of discovery.
Common indicators:
Increased anxiety, irritability, or hypervigilance
Sudden changes in appearance, sleep, or daily habits
Cleaning or altering vehicles or personal spaces
Burning trash, disposing of items, or deep-cleaning
Closely monitoring news coverage or social media
Offering unsolicited alibis, explanations, or theories
These behaviors do not prove guilt — but patterns matter.
5. Geographic Profiling Considerations
Location often tells its own story.
If the disappearance occurred in a familiar area:
The offender likely lives, works, or routinely travels within 1–5 miles of the last known location
Holding or disposal sites are often places the offender knows intimately
If near roads, trails, or rural zones, the offender may work in transportation, delivery, maintenance, construction, or outdoor labor
Crimes of opportunity favor familiarity over distance.
6. Victimology Factors
Behavioral profiling always begins with the victim — not the offender.
Key questions include:
Was the victim predictable in her routines
Were there recent conflicts, stressors, or new acquaintances
Was she experiencing emotional, financial, or relational vulnerability
Was someone displaying unwanted interest or fixation
The offender profile is shaped by what the victim’s life looked like in the weeks leading up to her disappearance, not by speculation after the fact.
Final Note
Behavioral profiles are tools, not conclusions. They help investigators prioritize leads, recognize patterns, and avoid overlooking individuals who appear “normal” on the surface.
In cases like this, the most dangerous assumption is that nothing happened — because when someone vanishes without explanation, something almost always did.
South Australia Police have confirmed a significant development in the disappearance of August “Gus” Lamont, the four-year-old boy who vanished from Oak Park Station in South Australia on September 27, 2025.
Background: For a detailed overview of Gus Lamont’s disappearance and the early search efforts, you can read the original article here:
On Thursday, February 5, 2026, police announced that the investigation into Gus’ disappearance has been formally declared a major crime.
Authorities confirmed that one individual who resided at Oak Park Station, the rural sheep property where Gus was last seen, is now considered a suspect after withdrawing their cooperation with the investigation. The individual has not been publicly identified, and no charges have been laid at this time.
Police have explicitly stated that Gus’ parents are not suspects.
According to South Australia Police, investigators have identified a number of inconsistencies and discrepancies in accounts related to the period surrounding Gus’ disappearance. As a result, a person known to Gus, who lived at the property, is now under active investigation.
Authorities have also confirmed:
There is no evidence to suggest Gus wandered away
There is no evidence to support an abduction by an unknown person
Earlier search efforts were extensive and unprecedented in scale. Vast areas of land surrounding Oak Park Station were searched, including three dams and six mine shafts, using aircraft, drones, ground teams, specialist resources, an Indigenous tracker, and hundreds of personnel and volunteers. Despite these efforts, no physical evidence has been found to indicate Gus left the property on his own.
In January 2026, Task Force Horizon executed a search warrant at Oak Park Station, seizing a vehicle, a motorcycle, and electronic devices, all of which remain under forensic examination. Additional targeted searches were conducted in early February, with authorities stating that further searches may occur as new information or intelligence becomes available.
South Australia Police have acknowledged the devastating impact this case has had on Gus’ family and the wider community, emphasizing that the investigation remains active, thorough, and ongoing, with a continued commitment to finding answers and locating Gus.
Anyone with information related to this case is urged to contact Crime Stoppers at 1800-333-000.
This article examines a real case of domestic homicide and child murder through a criminal-psychology lens. Reader discretion is advised. Support resources are provided below.
Content Warning & Support Resources
Trigger Warning:
This article discusses domestic homicide, intimate partner violence, pregnancy loss, and the murder of children. These topics may be distressing or triggering, especially for survivors of abuse, family violence, or profound loss.
If at any point you feel overwhelmed, it is okay to pause. Your well-being comes first.
If You or Someone You Know Needs Help
United States
National Domestic Violence Hotline
📞 1-800-799-SAFE (7233) | 24/7 phone & chat
988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline
📞 Call or text 988 | 24/7 emotional support
Childhelp National Child Abuse Hotline
📞 1-800-422-4453 | Support for children & concerned adults
International Resources
Befrienders Worldwide
Crisis helplines in over 30 countries
International Association for Suicide Prevention
Global crisis center directory
Local Emergency Services:
If you are in immediate danger, contact your country’s emergency number.
You deserve safety, support, and to be taken seriously.
The Case That Shattered a Family
On August 13, 2018, a quiet suburban home in Frederick, Colorado became the center of one of the most disturbing family annihilation cases in modern American history. Shanann Watts, 34, was fifteen weeks pregnant. Her daughters, Bella, 4, and Celeste, 3, were described as joyful, affectionate children deeply bonded to their mother.
All three were murdered by their husband and father, Chris Watts.
This was not a crime of sudden rage. It was a crime of psychological erasure.
The Man No One Suspected
To friends, neighbors, and coworkers, Chris Watts appeared quiet, polite, and dependable. There were no public incidents of violence and no outward signs of instability. This absence of warning signs is not incidental — it is central to understanding the crime.
Watts fit the profile of what criminologists call a covert family annihilator: someone who avoids conflict, suppresses emotion, and maintains a compliant exterior while privately disengaging from their life.
Psychological Profile: The Covert Family Annihilator
Family annihilators are classified by motive. Watts falls into the covert subtype, characterized by:
Emotional suppression
Conflict avoidance
Dependency on external validation
Identity instability
Fantasy-driven thinking
Rather than confront marital problems or seek separation, Watts emotionally exited his life and entered a fantasy of starting over — free from responsibility, debt, and accountability.
This was not impulsive anger.
It was entitlement without confrontation.
Motive: Escape Without Consequences
Watts did not want to be seen as:
A divorced man
A father who abandoned his children
The villain of his own story
Instead, he sought a reality in which his obligations simply ceased to exist. In forensic psychology, this is known as annihilative escape — eliminating perceived obstacles rather than facing consequence.
The Murder of Shanann Watts
Shanann returned home from a business trip exhausted, pregnant, and unaware that her husband had already decided her fate. Her murder was intimate and controlled, lacking the hallmarks of an emotional explosion.
This was not a loss of control.
It was a decision.
Filicide: When Children Become “Obstacles”
Many spousal murderers do not kill their children. Crossing that line requires moral disengagement and dehumanization.
Watts came to view Bella and Celeste not as individuals, but as extensions of a life he wanted erased. This is known as instrumental filicide — killing children not out of hatred, but because they interfere with a desired outcome.
Bella Watts and Conscious Intent
Bella’s age matters. She was old enough to sense fear, ask questions, and resist. Her awareness makes this crime especially significant from a psychological standpoint.
Watts continued forward despite understanding exactly what he was doing. This reflects sustained intent, not dissociation or psychosis.
Behavior After the Murders
Following the killings, Watts displayed classic indicators of controlled deception:
Flat emotional affect
Inappropriate calm
Focus on image rather than loss
Inconsistent timelines
Rehearsed language
What was absent was grief. What replaced it was performance.
On the morning after Christmas, 1996, a six-year-old girl was found dead in the basement of her own home.
No footprints in the snow.
No broken windows.
No stranger fleeing into the night.
Instead, there was a ransom note — written calmly, deliberately, inside the house — and a crime scene that felt less like a kidnapping and more like a performance.
This is not an accusation against any person. It is a profile of the unknown offender — the UNSUB — based on crime-scene dynamics, offender psychology, and patterns seen in similar cases.
COMFORT INSIDE THE HOME
The offender did not act like someone breaking into a strange place.
They moved through the house.
They found paper and a pen.
They wrote a three-page note.
They carried the child to a rarely used basement room.
This level of comfort suggests familiarity — either with the home itself or with the people inside it.
In crimes involving children, offenders who remain at the scene tend to be:
Socially connected to the family
Previously trusted
Or confident they will not immediately be suspected
This was not a rushed crime. It was slow. And that is one of the most disturbing details.
THE RANSOM NOTE: A WINDOW INTO THE OFFENDER
Most ransom notes are short.
Direct.
Focused on money.
This one was theatrical.
It referenced movies.
Used dramatic phrasing.
Shifted between polite and threatening language.
From a profiling standpoint, this suggests someone who:
Enjoyed control through storytelling
Wanted to manipulate how police and the family interpreted events
May have believed they were smarter than investigators
This is consistent with narcissistic traits — not necessarily grandiose confidence, but the belief that one can outthink everyone else in the room.
The note also appears designed to create distance between the offender and the home. To say: This was an outsider. This was a kidnapping.
But the body never left the house.
That contradiction is the heart of the case.
STAGING: WHEN THE STORY DOESN’T MATCH THE CRIME
Staging happens when an offender alters a scene to mislead investigators.
Here, we see:
A kidnapping narrative
But no kidnapping occurred
Sexual assault indicators
A body concealed, not abandoned
This pattern is common when:
A crime escalates unexpectedly
The offender panics after serious injury or death
The offender needs to hide their true relationship to the victim
Staging is not the behavior of a calm, professional criminal.
It is the behavior of someone trying desperately to regain control.
PSYCHOLOGICAL TRAITS OF THE LIKELY OFFENDER
Based on similar crimes and behavioral research, the UNSUB likely displayed:
Manipulativeness
Emotional immaturity
Poor impulse control
Ability to compartmentalize
Possible deviant sexual fantasies involving children
This person could appear:
Normal in public
Even helpful or sympathetic afterward
But internally driven by control and secrecy
Such offenders often:
Follow media coverage obsessively
Insert themselves into discussions about the case
Attempt to redirect suspicion
Not always because they are bold — but because they are terrified of losing control of the narrative.
MALE OFFENDER PROBABILITY
Statistically, violent sexual homicides of children are overwhelmingly committed by males.
While statistics do not solve cases, they guide profiles.
This does not mean the offender was physically imposing or obviously threatening. Many child offenders are socially awkward, emotionally underdeveloped, and highly secretive.
They rely on access and trust — not force.
TWO PRIMARY BEHAVIORAL POSSIBILITIES
From a profiling perspective, the offender likely fell into one of two broad categories:
Someone Inside the Household or Inner Circle
This scenario fits:
The comfort level
The staging
The lack of forced entry
The attempt to fabricate an external threat
In these cases, the offender is often:
Attempting to protect themselves
Possibly trying to preserve the family unit
Acting in panic after escalation
Someone with Familiar Access but Not Living There
Such as:
A social acquaintance
A frequent visitor
Someone who knew routines and layouts
This offender would still need:
Confidence they would not be immediately suspected
Enough time alone inside the home
Random intruders rarely write lengthy notes inside a house after killing a child.
Jonathan Fraser vanished from Honolulu, Hawaii, in 2016. For years, his family searched for answers while investigators slowly uncovered a case tied to organized crime, betrayal, and revenge. In 2024, a federal jury found a powerful businessman responsible for crimes connected to Jonathan’s disappearance. But before final sentencing could happen, the man died in federal custody — leaving behind complicated legal outcomes and a family still without a body to bury.
This is Jonathan’s story.
Who Jonathan Fraser Was
Jonathan Fraser was born on May 11, 1995.
He was 21 years old when he disappeared.
He is described in missing-person records as a white male with brown hair and hazel eyes, approximately 5'7" and 150 pounds.
Jonathan had several distinctive scars:
Two on his chin
One under his left eye
One under his nose
A scar on his left leg
Some agencies spell his name “Johnathan,” but court records and most news outlets use Jonathan Fraser.
Jonathan also suffered from a medical condition requiring daily medication, which raised serious concern when he vanished.
He was described by loved ones as quiet, gentle, and kind — a friend to everyone.
Jonathan was in a relationship with Ashley Wong, and she was pregnant with his child when he went missing.
The 2015 Crash That Changed Everything
In November 2015, Jonathan was involved in a serious car accident with his close friend Caleb Miske-Lee.
Caleb later died from complications related to his injuries.
Caleb was the son of Honolulu businessman Michael John Miske Jr.
Although witness statements and available records identified Caleb as the driver, Miske publicly blamed Jonathan for his son’s death and later filed legal actions related to the crash.
Federal investigators would later say they believed this anger became the motive for Jonathan’s kidnapping and murder.
The Disappearance
Jonathan was last seen at approximately 9:30 a.m. on July 30, 2016, at his apartment in the 6200 block of Keokea Place in the Hawaiʻi Kai area of Honolulu.
He has never been heard from again.
On August 8, 2016, his vehicle — a gray two-door 1994 Honda hatchback with Hawaii license plate SXC021 — was found parked near Summer Street and Kuliouou Road in HawaiÊ»i Kai.
The car was recovered.
Jonathan was not.
Because of his medical condition and the suspicious circumstances, his case was classified as Endangered Missing.
The FBI later offered a reward of up to $20,000 for information leading to the arrest of those responsible for Jonathan’s disappearance.
A Criminal Enterprise Uncovered
In 2017, federal authorities arrested Michael John Miske Jr. and several associates, accusing them of running an organized criminal enterprise that had operated for years in Hawaii.
Prosecutors alleged Miske used his pest control company and other businesses as fronts for criminal activity involving:
Drug trafficking
Kidnapping
Murder-for-hire
Robbery
Extortion
Money laundering
Bank fraud
More than ten co-defendants were charged, many of whom later pleaded guilty.
Among the most serious accusations: that Miske had ordered the kidnapping and murder of Jonathan Fraser.
The Boat Investigators Believe Was Used
In August 2017, the FBI searched a 37-foot Boston Whaler boat named Painkiller, registered to a company connected to Miske.
Agents seized over 100 pieces of evidence, including:
Navigation equipment
SD cards
Engine and vacuum filters
Sponges and brushes
Swabs from multiple areas of the vessel
Knives
A bilge pump and discharge hose
Prosecutors said they believed the boat was used in Jonathan’s abduction and murder, possibly to dispose of his body at sea.
Jonathan’s remains have never been recovered.
Ashley Wong’s Testimony: “We Were Set Up”
One of the most emotional moments of the federal trial came when Ashley Wong testified.
She told the jury that after Caleb’s death, Miske had provided her and Jonathan with housing and a car, which she now believes created a false sense of safety.
Then, on the day Jonathan disappeared, July 30, 2016, Miske arranged a spa day in Ko Olina for Ashley and Caleb’s wife, Delia.
Ashley testified that she now believes the trip was meant to get them out of the apartment while Jonathan was targeted.
While she was gone, she could not reach Jonathan.
By that evening, when friends also could not find him, she became convinced he had been kidnapped.
That night, she drove to Miske’s home in Kailua, hoping Jonathan might be there.
The house was dark. The carport was empty.
When she called Miske and asked where Jonathan was, he told her he was at home — but she did not believe him.
After Ashley began posting online asking for help finding Jonathan, she testified that Miske sent her an all-caps text message, warning her to stop telling people that Caleb had been the driver in the crash.
She said she felt threatened.
Not long after Jonathan vanished, she was also told she had to leave the apartment Miske had been paying for.
Ashley testified that Jonathan was not suicidal, was recovering from his injuries, and was excited to become a father.
“His main goal was to recover and become better than he was before.”
The Defense: No Direct Physical Evidence
During the trial, Miske’s attorneys emphasized that there was no direct forensic evidence — such as fingerprints or DNA — tying him personally to the locations where prosecutors said Jonathan was held or killed.
Honolulu Police forensic specialists testified that fingerprints from Jonathan’s apartment, his car, and another residence did not definitively link Miske to those scenes.
The defense attempted to discredit government witnesses and argued that Miske was a legitimate businessman and community donor.
Miske pleaded not guilty and denied any involvement in Jonathan’s disappearance.
Prosecutors responded that organized-crime cases are rarely built on one piece of physical evidence, but on patterns of control, witness testimony, communications, and coordinated actions among multiple people.
The Verdict: July 2024
After a six-month federal trial and testimony from more than 300 witnesses, the jury reached its decision.
In July 2024, Michael John Miske Jr. was found guilty on 13 federal counts, including:
Murder
Kidnapping
Racketeering conspiracy
Murder-for-hire conspiracy
Obstruction of justice
Additional violent and financial crimes
He faced mandatory life sentences and was awaiting formal sentencing.
Miske’s Death in Federal Custody
On December 1, 2024, Miske was found dead in his cell at the Federal Detention Center in Honolulu.
The Honolulu Medical Examiner later reported that he died from toxicity caused by fentanyl and para-fluorofentanyl, and that his death appeared accidental, though standard investigations continued.
He was 50 years old.
At the time of his death, Miske was pursuing an appeal and had not yet been formally sentenced.
The Legal Twist: Conviction Vacated After Death
Because Miske died before sentencing, the court applied a legal doctrine known as abatement ab initio, which requires that criminal convictions be vacated if a defendant dies before judgment is finalized.
As a result, in February 2025, the court formally dismissed the charges against Miske and vacated the jury verdict — not because the jury was wrong, but because the law does not allow a conviction to stand without final sentencing.
This is a legal technicality, not a factual finding of innocence.
The trial, testimony, and evidence all still exist in public record.
Continued Fallout: Daughter-in-Law Sentenced
Even after Miske’s death, the federal dismantling of the criminal enterprise continued.
In 2025, Delia Fabro-Miske — Caleb’s widow — was sentenced to seven years in federal prison after pleading guilty to racketeering conspiracy.
Judge Derrick Watson rejected claims that she did not understand her role in Jonathan Fraser’s disappearance.
He cited several actions that, taken together, showed knowledge and participation in the conspiracy, including:
Convincing Jonathan and Ashley to live in an apartment paid for by Miske
Disconnecting the apartment’s internet router, limiting communication
Arranging the spa day on the day Jonathan disappeared
Quickly forcing Ashley out of the apartment afterward
“Together they paint a strong and clear picture of a conspiracy to commit murder and kidnapping,” the judge said.
Fabro-Miske was also ordered to pay nearly $50,000 in restitution and will serve three years of supervised release after completing her sentence.
Multiple other co-defendants in the Miske Enterprise have also pleaded guilty to various charges.
Still Missing
Despite years of investigation, federal prosecution, guilty pleas, and sentencing:
Jonathan Fraser is still missing.
His family has never been able to lay him to rest.
There has been no recovery, no burial, no final goodbye.
Justice in court does not replace the loss of a son, a partner, and a father who never got to meet his child.
Remembering Jonathan
Jonathan Fraser was not just a name in an indictment.
He was a young man who survived one tragedy, only to be taken by another.
He was loved. He was wanted. He had a future.
And until he is found, his story is not over.
If you have information about Jonathan Fraser’s disappearance, contact law enforcement or the FBI. Even years later, answers still matter.
